A decade after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has gone on in universities but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they favour unity but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he stated. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
